Updated Projections Mid-New York Film Fest – The Hollywood Reporter


PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s executive editor of awards Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

* * *

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
The Fabelmans (Universal)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Women Talking (UAR)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
The Woman King (Sony)
She Said (Universal)
Tár (Focus)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

Major Threats
Till (UAR)
Close (A24)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
The Whale (A24)
Empire of Light (Searchlight)
Armageddon Time (Focus)
Living (Sony Classics)

Possibilities
Nope (Universal)
The Good Nurse (Netflix)
The Inspection (A24)
RRR (Variance)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon)
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
White Noise (Netflix)
The Son (Sony Classics)
Bones and All (UAR)

Still to See
Avatar: The Way of Water (Fox)
Babylon (Paramount)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)
Emancipation (Apple)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
A Man Called Otto (Sony)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Todd Field (Tár)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

Major Threats
Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Lukas Dhont (Close)
Maria Schrader (She Said)
Chinonye Chukwu (Till)
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Possibilities
James Gray (Armageddon Time)
Sam Mendes (Empire of Light)
Darren Aronofsky (The Whale)
Jordan Peele (Nope)
Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Tobias Lindholm (The Good Nurse)
Noah Baumbach (White Noise)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Bardo)
Luca Guadagnino (Bones and All)

Still to See
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Guillermo del Toro (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio)
Marc Forster (A Man Called Otto)
Antoine Fuqua (Emancipation)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Adam Sandler (Hustle)

Major Threats
Bill Nighy (Living)
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Jonathan Majors (Devotion)
Hugh Jackman (The Son)

Possibilities
Song Kang Ho (Broker)
Park Hae-il (Decision to Leave)
Adam Driver (White Noise)
Eden Dambrine (Close)
Cooper Raiff (Cha Cha Real Smooth)
Daniel Giménez Cacho (Bardo)

Still to See
Christian Bale (The Pale Blue Eye)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Winston Duke (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto)
Will Smith (Emancipation)
Sam Worthington (Avatar: The Way of Water)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)

Major Threats
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)
Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse)
Lea Seydoux (One Fine Morning)

Possibilities
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway)
Emma Corrin (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Mia Goth (Pearl)
Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Taylor Russell (Bones and All)
Zar Amir Ebrahimi (Holy Spider)
Florence Pugh (The Wonder)
Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling)

Still to See
Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)
Anna Diop (Nanny)
Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Major Threats
Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time)
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Andre Braugher (She Said)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Bokeem Woodbine (The Inspection)

Possibilities
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness)
Jack O’Connell (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Toby Jones (Empire of Light)
Don Cheadle (White Noise)
Igor Van Dessel (Close)

Still to See
Ben Foster (Emancipation)
Harry Melling (The Pale Blue Eye)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Claire Foy (Women Talking)
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)

Major Threats
Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Jennifer Ehle (She Said)
Samantha Morton (She Said)
Patricia Clarkson (She Said)

Possibilities
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Sophie Kauer (Tár)
Anne Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Sadie Sink (The Whale)
Judith Ivey (Women Talking)
Greta Gerwig (White Noise)
Laura Dern (The Son)

Still to See
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Michelle Monaghan (Nanny)
Margot Robbie (Babylon)
Tamara Tunie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)

Major Threats
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
The Wonder (Alice Birch & Sebastián Lelio)

Possibilities
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
Bones and All (David Kajganich)
The Son (Christopher Hampton)

Still to See
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron & Josh Friedman)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Catherine Called Birdy (Lena Dunham)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro & Patrick McHale)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund)

Major Threats
Tár (Todd Field)
Nope (Jordan Peele)
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeong)
Armageddon Time (James Gray)
The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)

Possibilities
Cha Cha Real Smooth (Cooper Raiff)
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Broker (Hirokazu Koreeda)
Empire of Light (Sam Mendes)
Bardo (Alejandro G. Inarritu)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

Still to See
Babylon (Damien Chazelle)
Emancipation (William N. Collage)
Nanny (Nikyatu Jusu)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Close (Belgium)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Corsage (Austria)
Saint Omer (France)
Holy Spider (Denmark)

Major Threats
Bardo (Mexico)

Still to See
Alcarràs (Spain)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Beautiful Beings (Iceland)
Boy from Heaven (Sweden)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel)
EO (Poland)
Eternal Spring (Canada)
Girl Picture (Finland)
Klondike (Ukraine)
Nostalgia (Italy)
Plan 75 (Japan)
War Sailor (Norway)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
Descendant
(Netflix)

Major Threats
Freedom on Fire (still seeking U.S. distribution)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
All That Breathes (HBO)
Sr. (Netflix)
Last Flight Home (MTV)
Bad Axe (IFC)
The Return of Tanya Tucker (Sony Classics)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (Sony Classics)
The Janes (HBO)
The Territory (Nat Geo)

Possibilities
Icarus: The Aftermath (still seeking U.S. distribution)
In Her Hands (Netflix)
Civil (Netflix)
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff/CNN)
Bitterbrush (Magnolia)
Turn Every Page (Sony Classics)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Classics)

Still to See
2nd Chance (Showtime)
Aftershock (Hulu)
A Compassionate Spy (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Corridors of Power (Showtime)
I Didn’t See You There (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Exiles (still seeking U.S. distribution)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney)
Is That Black Enough for You?!? (Netflix)
Louis Armstrong’s Black and Blues (Apple)
Mickey: The Story of a Mouse (Disney)
Mija (Disney)
Nothing Compares (Showtime)
The Princess (HBO)
Punch 9 for Harold Washington (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia)
Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me (Apple)
Sidney (Apple)
The Voice of Dust and Ash (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Volcano: Rescue from Whakaari (Netflix)
We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wildcat (Amazon)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga
“Nobody Like U” (Turning Red) — Billie Eilish & Finneas
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Jahaan Akil Sweet & Daniel Pemberton
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy

Major Threats (rest of shortlist)
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Vegas” (Elvis) — Doja Cat
“Not Alone” (Devotion) — Joe Jonas
“(You Made It Feel Like) Home” (Bones and All) — Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“I Ain’t Worried” (Top Gun: Maverick) — One Republic
“Heartbeat” (Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile) — Shawn Mendes

Possibilities
“Stand Up” (Till) — D’Mile & Jazmine Sullivan
“At the Automat” (The Automat) — Mel Brooks
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren
“On My Way” (Marry Me) — Ivy Adara, Leroy Clampitt & Michael Pollack
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph
“We Are Art” (We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura) — Annalaura di Luggo & Paky Di Maio

Still to see
“[still to be named]” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Selena Gomez





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